Prognoza vremena

upravo tako, slika s Bilogore kasni 15-ak minuta u odnosu na realno vrijeme.

UTC ljetno vrijeme dodaje se 2h
UTC zimsko vrijeme dodaje se 1h

Coja, hoće to kod nas kiše biti? Kažu za petak, subotu i nedjelju? Pa da oče već pasti malo... presuho je!

trenutno ovako izgleda, sutra ću biti pametniji:

u petak prolazak fronte ali za istok Slavonije oborine slabe 1-5 litara.
subota i nedjelja bez oborina

Stanje s oborinama ove godine: (većinom vrlo sušno, sušno)



Gradište ima prosjek za prvih 6 mjeseci nekih cca. 300 mm a ove godine je palo 152 sto znači duplo manje od prosjeka. Kao zanimljivost prošle godine je u lipnju palo više kiše nego što je ove godine u prvih 6 mjeseci.

Prošle godine za Gradište:
siječanj 75 mm
veljača 67 mm
ožujak 50 mm
travanj 51 mm
svibanj 102 mm ( u prvih 6 mjeseci ukupno: 345 mm )
lipanj 194 mm
srpanj 71 mm

Siječanj 2010
Zavizan 332,Gospic 308,Ogulin 195,Parg 183,Karlovac 132,Sisak 106,ZG aer 92,Daruvar 90,Puntijarka 85,ZG Maksimir 84,Osijek 83,Slavonski Brod 80,Bjelovar 79,Bilogora 78,ZG Gric 77,Gradiste 75,Varaždin 73,Krizevci 71,Krapina 61 mm

Veljača 2010
Zavižan 280,Parg 196,Gospić 158,Ogulin 157,Puntijarka 133,Karlovac 102,Zagreb Pleso 88,
Sisak 86,Slavonski Brod 81,Krapina 73,Bilogora 70,Daruvar 69,Gradište 67,Varaždin 67,Bjelovar 66,Zagreb Maksimir 64,Zagreb Grič 61,Križevci 58,Osijek 58 mm

Ožujak 2010
Zavižan 140,Ogulin 105,Puntijarka 95,Zagreb aer 90,Parg 89, Gospić 88,Karlovac 70,Sisak 67,Daruvar 58,Bilogora 53,Zagreb Grič 51,Bjelovar 50,Gradište 50,Slavonski B 49,Zagreb Maksimir 44,Križevci 47,Varaždin 40,Krapina 35, Osijek 23 mm

Travanj 2010
Puntijarka 88,Daruvar 80,Karlovac 78,Križevci 77,Bilogora 76,Krapina 74,Varaždin 73,Osijek 71
Bjelovar 67,ZG Grič 66,ZG Maksimir 63,Osijek Klisa 62,ZG aer 61,Sisak 58,Slavonski Brod 52,Gradište 51 mm

Svibanj 2010
Daruvar 198,Puntijarka 183,Slavonski Brod 162,Sisak 159,Bilogora 156,Karlovac 141,Bjelovar 137
Krapina 129,ZG Grič 124,Osijek 121,Križevci 107,Varaždin 107,Gradište 102,ZG Maksimir 97 mm

Lipanj 2010 (extremno kišan, neke postaje su oborile rekord u količini oborine odkad postoje mjerenja)
Daruvar 263,Osijek 235,Bilogora 199,Gradište 194,Slavonski Brod 178,Bjelovar 178,Sisak 148,Puntijarka 145,
Zagreb aer 140,Križevci 139,Karlovac 134,Varaždin 133,Zageb Maksimir 103,Krapina 99,Zagreb Grič 90 mm

Srpanj 2010
ZG Grič 121,Puntijarka 97,Križevci 85,Krapina 80,Bjelovar 79,Gradište 71,Daruvar 70,Varaždin 68,Osijek Klisa 67,Sisak 64 Bilogora 61,ZG Maksimir 53,ZG aer 47,Slavonski Brod 45,Karlovac 41,Osijek 32 mm

sutra nemojte da vas iznenadi lokalno olujan vjetar i tuča. Mogučnost posljepodne i navečer zapadni krajevi unutrašnjosti, a tjekom noči Slavonija.

detaljnije napišem navečer kad izađe novi izlaz.

evo i ESTOFEX izdao upozorenja na lokalno velike tuče ! Čak i ne isključuje pojavu tornada.



Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 23 Jun 2011 06:00 to Fri 24 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Jun 2011 22:42
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for the southern Alpine region mainly for large hail and excessice precipitation.

A level 2 was issued fro the northern Balkans mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for southern Finland mainly for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Belarus, western Ukraine, Slovakia, and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

A trough migrates across Central Europe. A strong mid-level flow curves around the base of this trough. At lower levels, a tongue of warm air will spread into eastern Europe ahead of a cold front situated from Spain to the Alps and the Baltic States on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Southern Alpine region

The surface cold front has reached the Alps and has slowed down. To the south of this front, southerly to south-easterly winds are expected on Thursday. Models indicate that the warm air mass will get fairly moist with low-level dewpoints around 18C. Although the lapse rates will be not very steep, diurnal heating will likely create MLCAPE in the order of 1000 J/kg.

Storms are forecast as early as in the late morning given upslope flow and increasing convergence over the southern Alps. These storms will have a rather high potential of becoming severe given the strong deep layer vertical wind shear due to the strong westerly mid-level flow that expands southward. Latest GFS indicates favourably veering profiles and 0-3km SRH around 150 m²/s².

Supercells are expected with the potential of producing large or very large hail and locally excessive precipitation. The storms are forecast to go on during the afternoon and evening while the main activity will likely spread eastward together with the mid-level jet. In the evening hours, the chance of tornadoes is forecast to increase due to increasing low-level vertical wind shear underneath a strong westerly flow at 700 hPa. The storms are forecast to weaken from the west during the night hours as cold air advection sets in.

Northern Balkans

The surface cold front is forecast to move into the northern Balkans on Thursday, and rich low-level moisture is advected with northerly winds. The convergent wind field and upslope flow over the Bosnia region will be associated with moisture pooling, and GFS indicates dew points of more than 20C in the afternoon hours. Although the lapse rates will be rather poor, CAPE up to 2000 J/kg may evolve.

While the synoptic forcing will be weak initially, it will increase in the afternoon due to the approaching mid-level trough. Storms will become likely especially over the mountains and will spread south-eastward later on. Given the strong westerly jet that will be also associated with increasing winds at 700 hPa, favourably veering profiles and 0-3km SRH around 250 m²/s² are possible due to the weak low-level north-easterly winds.

Supercells are expected capable of producing large or very large hail. Especially in the northern regions, tornadoes may occur in the evening hours, when boundary-layer stabilization will be associated with increasing low-level vertical wind shear. During the night hours, the storms are forecast to cluster and may merge to an MCS spreading south-eastward. This system may be capable of producing severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation until the morning hours.

Baltic States, Finland, and surroundings

Latest models indicate a deepening frontal depression along the cold front that will move into southern Finland together with a strong mid-level jet streak on Thursday. Ahead of the low, strong vertical wind shear is forecast associated with curved hodographs (SRH 0-1km 150 m²/s²). A limiting factor will be the weak instability given a dry boundary-layer air mass, and thunderstorms are expected to be mostly elevated. Storms that root to the boundary layer may become severe with a potential of producing severe wind gusts and tornadoes. In the afternoon, some instability may develop over southern Finland near the surface pressure center. Although the vertical wind shear will likely decrease, an overlap of instability and favourably low-level shear may develop resulting in an enhanced tornado risk.

Eastern Central Europe

As the cold front moves into Belarus, the western Ukraine, and Slovakia, diurnal heating will likely lead to increasing convective activity during the day. Current thinking is that these storms will be mostly non-severe and outflow-dominated given the weak synoptic forcing. The best chances for severe weather seem to exist in the late morning hours near a decaying south-westerly low-level jet. Early storms may profit from the strong low-level vertical wind shear and tornadoes are not ruled out. Large hail and excessive rain are forecast to become the prominent severe threat in the noon/afternoon hours.

Northern Algeria

Moist upslope flow during the day and rather cool mid-level air are forecast on Thursday. Storms that form over the Atlas mountains may be capable of producing large hail and excessive precipitation as well as severe wind gusts. Due to the weak vertical wind shear, these storms will likely be short-lived and will cluster later on.

fino, fino, taman pred žetvu pšenice

Pa taman da izvrši prije nas a taj kombajn nemoramo platiti, njega smo platili u ulogu.

to će biti lokalno tako da će većinu mjesta promašiti.


Prekjučer tornado u Češkoj:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYeaxiv_JJY&feature=related

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K-tBOMDZxc&feature=related

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANPoKnUvjug&feature=related

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnSlIPTr840&feature=related

Jučer u Njemačkoj, velika tuča, kukuruz a i ostalo totalno uništeni:
http://www4.wetterspiegel.de/stormchaser/wbb3/index.php?page=Thread&threadID=13181

COJA

kakvo je stanje za Požegu?? jel dolazi kiša i kad??
Unaprijed hvala...

na karti je objašnjenje a i gore sam napisao. Požeški kraj kasno posljepodne/navečer/noč. Od oborina prije će biti u krutom nego tekućem obliku.

Kad se gledao doslovno izlaz GFS, Požegi se crta 8 litara po četvornom metru u razdoblju od 20:00 h-00:00 h što je u rangu kratkotrajnog pljuska, ali ako se poklope određeni uvjeti lako moguće >30.

Konvektivne naoblake je najteže prognozirati kao i oborine tjekom ljetnih mjeseci.

Coja a šta se očekuje za naš kraj gradište-cerna

Ako kažem Slavonija nema smisla pisati za svako pojedino mjesto !

ovdje sam napisao upozorenje po regijama:
http://crometeo.net/site/

e majstore Coja šta veli vrijeme za Ludbreg znači okolica Varaždina?

E momci lakše malo sa pitanjima...









































Svi stanite u red iza mene.

Kod nas je danas ujutro palo malo kiše nije ni prašinu dobro pokupilo, a i vjetar je dosta puhao, ali sa se smirili i tem je baš ugodna za raditi.

jučer debakl prognostičkih modela, jake oluje koje su se predviđale nisu se ostvarile nigdje na teritoriju HR-a.
Dobro smo prošli jer je Austrija, dio Slovenije i u Mađarskoj Od Pećuha prema sjeveru bilo nevremena s tučom lokalno veličine od lješnjaka do kokošijeg jajeta.


Za danas posljepodne bi moglo biti pljuskova s grmljlavinom,najveća mogučnost je dole u BIH-u, od HR teritorija vuk-sri, brod-posa. žup.

Kakvo če bit vrijeme u Virju i okolici tj Novigradu

coja znaš li za sl. brod prjeti li nam neko nevrjeme!!!!

najvjerovatnije ne

Točno kako sam i rekao, čujem da je bio dobar pljusak u Gradištu

11COJA11 je napisao/la:

Za danas posljepodne bi moglo biti pljuskova s grmljlavinom,najveća mogučnost je dole u BIH-u, od HR teritorija vuk-sri, brod-posa. žup.

radar:

Dal ima negdje za Virje tjedna prognoza?(sve osim DHMZ-a)

evo 7-dnevna za Virije rezultat prognostičkog modela GFS (na toj stranici vrši se update 2 puta dnevno)
http://freemeteo.com/default.asp?pid=156&gid=3187699&la=1

Virije prognostički model EC
http://www.yr.no/sted/Kroatia/Koprivnica-Kri%C5%BEevci/Virje/time_for_time.html

Ostali dani:
http://www.yr.no/sted/Kroatia/Koprivnica-Kri%C5%BEevci/Virje/langtidsvarsel.html

Sve preko 3 dana gledaj "okvirno"

coja ,od područja +- gradište prema babinoj gredi pa do +- centra (u tome sam se području kretao) je bio dobar pljusak uz pomanju grmljavinu, ali sve svemu zadovoljavajuće....

Cerna također dobila finu kišu